Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Metaphysics of Violence and Terror

                          [First Draft]                                                                                             pdf File

Metaphysics of Violence and Terror
 
Ali Asghar Kazemi[1]
April 2011
__________________________  



Introduction
Just very recently, amidst the fateful crisis in Libya, the embattled Libyan dictator Qaddafi warned the NATO forces that soon he will mobilize an army of invisible “Jinns”[2] to confront the infidel intruders to a Muslem land.  It is not known what the reaction of NATO commanders in the field was, but eventually Qaddafi was quite serious about his metaphysical assertion when he ordered his forces to slaughter opposition groups.
Throughout the history of mankind, political rulers joint with spiritual leaders have used and abused the supernatural beliefs and metaphysical forces in order to establish their power and solidify their grip over the minds and bodies of  people. Religious wars of the past, inquisition trials, torture, prison and other cruel punishments are considered as clear manifestations of the influence of the outer-world in the daily life of people.
Terror and violence are terms that have existed all along with the development human society from primitive times to the present.  In prehistoric era to the advent of men’s primeval civilization, violence was part of daily life in the “state of nature” which was a product of  pure human instinct for survival. Gradually, before reason became as the ground foundation for “civil society”, religion and metaphysics dominated the realm of knowledge of the world and its various sophisticated phenomenon. Thenceforth, violence became inseparable parts of religious rituals that still today are being observed as a sacred duty in some religions.[3]
What are the principal causes of these acts of terror and violence that seem to be inseparable part of human societies? The main argument in this paper is that violence, terror and atrocities such as September 11 events, suicide attacks and other mass killings, executions and the likes, should be explained and understood only within the purview of “metaphysical paradigm” and not necessarily   through conventional rational approaches.

The Metaphysical Paradigm

Theorizing about violence and terror from a metaphysical[4] standpoint is a rather heavy task that requires a profound knowledge of both philosophy and religion. There are some resources in the literature on these topics which by nature are not always easy to understand for students of politics and international relations.[5]  My endeavor here is to elucidate some of the most critical aspects of violence and terror from a new methodological perspective, the “metaphysics.”
The terms metaphysics and metaphysical in a popular sense have been used in connection with “New Thought” in religion and theology.[6] Cutting across the division of the academic and the popular, there is another way of dividing metaphysics: theoretical and applied. This distinction is like the division between science and technology; one describes; the other applies the description to practical problems, putting knowledge to work. Traditionally, gathering knowledge in metaphysics is by rational thought; in a more popular understanding, knowledge gathering may be either mystical or “occult”[7]; in either case the pure knowledge is to be distinguished from the practical application of it.[8]
Prior to the modern history of science, scientific questions were addressed as a part of metaphysics known as natural philosophy. The term science itself meant "knowledge" of originating from epistemology. The scientific method, however, transformed natural philosophy into an empirical activity deriving from experiment unlike the rest of philosophy. By the end of the 18th century, it had begun to be called "science" to distinguish it from philosophy. Thereafter, metaphysics denoted philosophical enquiry of a non-empirical character into the nature of existence.[9]

The Essence of Violence

Many philosophers and thinkers have dealt with the question of violence from their own world view and perspective. Jacques Derrida’s Violence and Metaphysics is one such work that concluded, there is a necessary relationship between the metaphysical quest for “totality” and political “totalitarianism.” His views however relate merely to criticizing the philosophical foundation of Western political institutions by his theory of “deconstruction.”[10]   As he wrote in an early essay, “incapable of respecting the Being and meaning of the other, phenomenology and ontology would be philosophies of violence.[11]

On the common ground, violence is defined as the “use of physical force to cause injury, damage or death.”[12] Furthermore, “violence is used as a tool of manipulation and also is an area of concern for law and culture which take attempts to suppress and stop it.” The term violence encompasses a broad spectrum covering a wide variety of illegal or unusual actions against human beings, even animals and living species or their natural environment. This can be as a result of interpersonal conflicts, international wars, aggression, genocide or deliberate alteration and demolition of the environment.

Violence can be viewed and defined from various angles: law, politics, sociology, psychology etc. According to Max Weber, states and governments have the “monopoly on violence” because they possess all the means and instruments of inflicting injuries to people and depriving them from their freedom and ordinary lives. Use of violence through legal system by police forces and military is solely within the competence of legal authority of governments for the purpose of law enforcement and establishing peace and order. But, in some instances, this could go beyond the legitimate purposes for which it has been established; such as maintaining a ruler in power who has lost its legitimacy. 
Contrary to Weber, German political theorist Hannah Arendt[13], making clear distinction between violence and power, believes that "Violence can be justifiable, but it never will be legitimate. ... Its justification loses in plausibility the farther its intended end recedes into the future.”[14] Whereas most political theorists regard violence as an extreme manifestation of power, Arendt thinks that the two concepts as opposites. Of course, no one logically questions the use of violence in self-defense, because the danger is not only clear but also present, and the end justifying the means is immediate. But, obviously, to be lawful, certain conditions should be observed, without which it could create legal obligation and liability.  
There have been widespread attempts to extend the traditional definition of violence to various fields of social studies. Some authors have   made a distinction between “hard” and “soft” violence. Thus, in delving into the etymological development of the word violence, we come across various attributes of the term including situations where physical violence is not necessarily present but the impact could be more detrimental to the subjects.

Here are some derivatives of the regular definition of violence that could go even further in other areas that no explicit physical harm is inflicted to the victims: 
1.       Structural violence: a term that was first coined in the 1960s commonly attributed to Johan Galtung. It refers to a form of violence based on the systemic ways in which a given social structure or social institution harms people by preventing them from meeting their basic needs. Structural violence inevitably produces conflict and often direct violence, including family violence, racial violence…[15]
2.      Symbolic violence: was first introduced by French sociologist Pierre Bourdieu to account for the tacit almost unconscious modes of cultural/social domination occurring within the every-day social habits maintained over conscious subjects. The concept of symbolic violence also referred to as "soft" violence, which includes actions that have discriminatory or injurious meaning or implications, such as gender dominance and racism. Symbolic violence maintains its effect through the mis-recognition of power relations situated in the social matrix of a given field.[16]
3.      Religious violence: Religions and ideologies have been the cause of interpersonal violence throughout history. Ideologues often falsely accuse others of violence, such as the ancient blood libel against Jews, the medieval accusations of casting witchcraft spells against women, caricatures of black men as “violent brutes” that helped excuse the late 19th century Jim Crow laws in the United States and modern accusations of satanic ritual abuse against day care center owners and others. Both supporters and opponents of the 21st century War on Terrorism regard it largely as an ideological and religious war.[17]
4.      Media Violence: Some social scientists see an undisputable link between media and violence. This argument can be easily supported in authoritarian regimes where media and writers are under the strict control of the government. In this case, media can influence and instigate public opinion against or in favor of some faction of the society leading to controversy, conflict and violence.  In some instance they can destroy the personality of a dissenting public figure by defamations and false allegations.

Terror and Terrorism
While violence and terror are somehow similar in form and substance, the latter comes from Latin verb terrere meaning “to frighten” which adds a singular attribute to the former. In other words, the ultimate objective of terror is “to inspire fear with a view “to paralyze the will to resist the objectives of the perpetrator.”[18]
David Forte states that the “primary difference between terror and terrorism is that while illegitimate terror can be neutrally evil, i.e. random violence committed by robbers, rapists and even soldiers, terrorism has the additional political or moral dimension, being the systemized use of randomly focused violence by organized groups against civilian targets to effect a political objective.”[19]
Terror and terrorism have existed throughout the history of human civilization. Despite its long history, terrorism and low-level violence associated with religious movements are more recent phenomena. In the past, despotic rulers used terror as a means to subjugate their own people. The post-revolutionary France has passed through the trauma of Robespierre terror. The memory of systematic state terror in Stalin’s Russia, Hitler’s Germany and other dictators is still alive. But today this dimension of terrorism has changed drastically. We are now witnessing the tremendous spread of a new face of terror, associated with violent behavior of religious extremists, whose cruel actions and drive to cause extensive bloodshed, go beyond sane imagination. This phenomenon is described as one of the sad paradox of our time; the myth of “romantic revolution” whose promoters are the ideologues, whose dupes are the young and idealistic and whose victims are the weak and the little men, the children, the old and defenseless.[20]
With the advent of sophisticated communications and relations among nations, terrorism, whether directed toward states or individuals, has gained new dimensions and consequently attracted the attention of world public opinion. It has also provided appetizing food for mass media around the world and hence incentive for terrorists to gain reputation through wide publicity. Unlike the past when conventional media, such as radio and television broadcast and newspapers could limit the propaganda impact of terrorism, today the internet has become a rather uncontrollable, easy and handy tool for murderer to expose their horrifying acts to the public   around the world. We have seen with revulsion the shocking video clips showing the act of beheading of innocent people in Iraq.

Problem of Definition and Regulation
While wars and armed conflicts have been defined and regulated in the past, violence and terror never had such capacity; since they are considered as inhuman acts of barbarism and savagery. They have been forbidden as crime against humanity.
Despite several attempts to define and regulate the periphery of terror and terrorism, thus far, the international community and the United Nations have not been able to reach a comprehensive agreement. Perhaps, one reason for this deficiency is that one cannot legalize and inhibit something that belongs to the realm of faith and metaphysics.[21] Indeed, atrocities such as the one we have been witnessing in recent years cannot be explained and digested by a sane and rational mind. Those who resort to these savageries are presumed to be “men of faith” whose source of inspiration comes from the outer-world or the “metaphysical.” Obviously, regulating such actions through national and international laws and conventions can hardly deter the wrongdoers and criminals.

Social scientists however have attempted to circumvent the problem by shedding some light on the matter. In the context of terrorism, Charles Tilly identifies "terror" as a political strategy defined as "asymmetrical deployment of threats and violence against enemies using means that fall outside the forms of political struggle routinely operating within some current regime", and therefore ranges from:
-intermittent actions by members of groups that are engaged in wider political struggles to one segment in the modus operandi of durably organized specialists in coercion,
-including government-employed and government-backed specialists in coercion to the dominant rationale for distinct, committed groups and networks of activists.[22]
According to Tilly, the term "terror" spans across a wide range of human cruelties, from Stalin's use of executions to clandestine attacks by groups like the Basque separatists and the  IRA and even ethnic cleansing and genocide.[23]
In this sense, professor Bassiouni[24] notes: "to define "terrorism" in a way that is both all-inclusive and unambiguous is very difficult, if not impossible. One of the principal difficulties lies in the fundamental values at stake in the acceptance or rejection of terror-inspiring violence as means of accomplishing a given goal. The obvious and well known range of views on these issues are what makes an internationally accepted specific definition of what is loosely called "terrorism," a largely impossible undertaking. That is why the search for and internationally agreed upon definition may well be a futile and unnecessary effort."[25]
In the meantime, the international community adopted a series of “sectoral conventions” that define and criminalize various types of terrorist activities. In addition, since 1994, the United Nations General Assembly has condemned terrorist acts using the following political description of terrorism: "Criminal acts intended or calculated to provoke a state of terror in the general public, a group of persons or particular persons for political purposes are in any circumstance unjustifiable, whatever the considerations of a political, philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic, religious or any other nature that may be invoked to justify them."[26]
In 2004, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1566 condemned terrorist acts as:
"criminal acts, including against civilians, committed with the intent to cause death or serious bodily injury, or taking of hostages, with the purpose to provoke a state of terror in the general public or in a group of persons or particular persons, intimidate a population or compel a government or an international organization to do or to abstain from doing any act, which constitute offenses within the scope of and as defined in the international conventions and protocols relating to terrorism, are under no circumstances justifiable by considerations of a political, philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic, religious or other similar nature."
Despite all these attempts, we are still far from containing the spread of terror and violence in the world. Perhaps the problem should be approached not through the earthly and mundane discourse but somewhere above the outer-world from where the faithful and zealous terrorists get inspired. 

Looking to the Future
In recent years, especially after the American military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, terrorists have gone to the extreme by conducting suicidal attacks against their targets. Of course, we shall not forget the suicide attacks against embassies and troop’s headquarters of Western powers around the world before that period; among which militia actions in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Argentina… are the most notorious. Despite extreme precautionary security measures, these operations and the likes are still being carried out by terrorists, for the purpose of gaining attention of the media, intimidating an opponent or toppling a shaky and weak government. The present Iraq and Afghanistan are ill-fated example of such daily occurrence.

We are living in a dangerous world no prophet ever predicted. The spread and magnitude of violence and terror activities have made all nations very vulnerable. What happened in New York, London and Madrid can occur at anytime and anywhere without discrimination. Terrorists have already demonstrated that they can achieve disproportionately large effects in world order with a relatively small number and limited capacity for violence. They have caused widespread alarm, compelling governments with a clear preponderance of conventional military power to negotiate with them, to grant them concessions or simply to back down with humiliation.
Thus far all endeavors to effectively deal with this kind of terrorism seem to have failed. It is not quite clear how the world should approach this evil of the 21st century. Use of force and naked power has proved to be inefficacious. It would be rather hard to believe that terrorism may be uprooted for good in the years to come. Perhaps we should think of some unconventional means to contain this unusual phenomenon called terrorism. 

Living in peace and quiet for individuals and states has become an art[27] for which we are not so much prepared. However, perhaps in the long-run, we end up to cohabit with this awful situation and gradually get used to terror and violence in our daily life. Inevitably, the result of such dreadful situation is further religious and racial intolerance, clashes and consequently more closure of societies and limitation of people’s interactions around the world. In such circumstances, we should surrender to the will of “metaphysics” and just hope for a miracle to change our vulnerable condition and await the great savior to come from above to protect us from unforeseen hazards. /




[1] Ali Asghar Kazemi is Former Dean and currently Professor of Law and International Relations at the ‎‎Faculty of Law and Political Science - Post-Graduate Program, IAU, Science and Research Branch. ‎‎Tehran- Iran. Dr. Kazemi is a graduate of the French Naval Academy and The United States Naval Post-Graduate School, Monterrey Calif. He holds PhD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Medford, Mass. USA.

[2] In the Islamic tradition, Jinn is a spirit that can take on various human and animal forms and makes mischievous use of its supernatural powers. Jinns are mentioned in the Quran like a zillion times. They even have a surah to themselves. (Suratul Jinn). They use to reveal to the Prophet Muhammad in times he needed help against his enemies. Sometimes, they even carry him to their world to teach whole clan of them.

[3] Scarifying various animals (instead of human beings in the past) during religious rituals and manifestations can be indeed considered a form of systematic violence still practiced in certain societies.

[4] The term metaphysics originally referred to the writings of Aristotle that came after his writings on physics, in the arrangement made by Andronicus of Rhodes about three centuries after Aristotle's death. Traditionally, metaphysics refers to the branch of philosophy that attempts to understand the fundamental nature of all reality, whether visible or invisible. It seeks a description so basic, so essentially simple, so all-inclusive that it applies to everything, whether divine or human or anything else. It attempts to tell what anything must be like in order to be at all. To call one a metaphysician in this traditional, philosophical sense indicates nothing more than his or her interest in attempting to discover what underlies everything. Old materialists, who said that there is nothing but matter in motion, and current naturalists, who say that everything is made of lifeless, non-experiencing energy, are just as much to be classified as metaphysicians as are idealists, who maintain that there is nothing but ideas, or mind, or spirit. See generally: Metaphysics: Multiple Meanings: Presented by AWPNT This site was selected as one of the "Best 1,001 Web Sites “by Computing (December 1996).
[5] See e.g. Halpern, Cynthia. "Theorizing Terror: The Violence of the Sacred and the Violence of the Secular" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Marriott Wardman Park, Omni Shoreham, Washington Hilton, Washington, DC, Sep 01, 2005 http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p39962_index.html

[6] The New Thought movement--not to be confused with New Age--is a more than century-old, practically oriented spirituality that promotes fullness of all aspects of living, through constructive thinking, meditating, and other ways of realizing the presence of God. See above Metaphysics: Multiple Meaning, AWPNT
 
[7]  That is: relating to, involving, or characteristic of magic, witchcraft, or supernatural phenomena.
[8] Ibid
[9] Metaphysics is a branch of philosophy of concerned with explaining the fundamental nature of being and the world, although the term is not easily defined. Traditionally, metaphysics attempts to answer two basic questions in the broadest possible terms: a)"What is there?" and b) "What is it like?" A person who studies metaphysics would be called either a metaphysicist or a metaphysician. The metaphysician attempts to clarify the fundamental notions by which people understand the world, including existence, the definition of object, property, space, time, causality, and possibility. A central branch of metaphysics is ontology, the investigation into the basic category of beings and how they relate to each other. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphysics
[10] Jacques Derrida (1930-2004) was the founder of “deconstruction,” a way of criticizing not only both literary and philosophical texts but also political institutions. Although Derrida at times expressed regret concerning the fate of the word “deconstruction,” its popularity indicates the wide-ranging influence of his thought, in philosophy, in literary criticism and theory, in art and, in particular, architectural theory, and in political theory. Beside critique, Derridean deconstruction consists in an attempt to re-conceive the difference that divides self-reflection (or self-consciousness). But even more than the re-conception of difference, and perhaps more importantly, deconstruction works towards preventing the worst violence. It attempts to render justice. Indeed, deconstruction is relentless in this pursuit since justice is impossible to achieve. See: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/derrida/
[11]   Jacques Derrida, Violence and Metaphysics (1967).
[13]  See e.g.: Hanna Arendt, On Violence, Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, 1970 - 106 pages . This book is “An analysis of the nature, causes, and significance of violence in the second half of the twentieth century. Arendt also reexamines the relationship between war, politics, violence, and power. “Incisive, deeply probing, written with clarity and grace, it provides an ideal framework for understanding the turbulence of our times”(Nation). Index.
[14] From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[15] See for example: James Gilligan, Violence: Reflections on a National Epidemic. Gilligan defines structural violence as "the increased rates of death and disability suffered by those who occupy the bottom rungs of society, as contrasted with the relatively lower death rates experienced by those who are above them." Gilligan largely describes these "excess deaths" as "non-natural" and attributes them to the stress, shame, discrimination and denigration that results from lower status.  From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[16]From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[17] Ibid
[18] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terror
[19]  Forte, David F. "Terror and Terrorism: There Is a Difference". Ohio Northern University Law Review (Ohio Northern University Pettit College of Law) (1986).13: 39-52.

[20] See Ali Asghar Kazemi,  “ The Art of Living in Terror” in Strategic Discourse.

[21] The definition of terrorism has proved controversial. Various legal systems and government agencies use different definitions of "terrorism". Moreover, the international community has been slow to formulate a universally agreed upon, legally binding definition of this crime. These difficulties arise from the fact that the term "terrorism" is politically and emotionally charged. Angus Martyn in a briefing paper for the Australian Parliament has stated that "The international community has never succeeded in developing an accepted comprehensive definition of terrorism. During the 1970s and 1980s, the United Nations attempts to define the term foundered mainly due to differences of opinion between various members about the use of violence in the context of conflicts over national liberation and self-determination." These divergences have made it impossible to conclude a Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism that incorporates a single, all-encompassing, legally binding, criminal law on definition of terrorism. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

[22]  Charles Tilly. “Terror, Terrorism, Terrorists,” Sociological Theory, Vol. 22, No. 1, Theories of Terrorism: A Symposium (Mar., 2004), pp. 5-13 
[23] Idem
[24] Mahmoud Cherif Bassiouni is a United Nations war crimes expert and university professor, born in 1937. In 1999, Professor Bassiouni was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for his work in the field of international criminal justice and for his contribution to the creation of the International Criminal Court. He did not win as Médecins Sans Frontières received the award in 1999.


[25] From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[26] Taken from definition of terrorism in Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  
[27] The latter part of this paper is taken from my earlier  writings  on the subject: See Ali Asghar Kazemi,  “ The Art of Living in Terror” in Strategic Discourse.


* Ali Asghar Kazemi is professor of Law and International Relations in Tehran-Iran. Students, researchers, academic institutions, media or any party interested in using all or parts ‎of this article are welcomed to do so with the condition of giving full attribution to the author, Scholar E-Journal and the ‎Middle East Academic Forum. ©All Copy Rights Reserved.‎



Sunday, February 13, 2011

Quantum Politics: New Methodological Perspective




Quantum Politics
New Methodological Perspective

Ali Asghar Kazemi[1]

Tehran- February 2011













Introduction
Recent events and escalating crises at the start of the year 2011 throughout the Arab states of the Middle East and North Africa, from Tunisia and Egypt to South Yemen, have truly shocked observers, researchers and specialists who missed the symptoms of these fundamental shifts. It appears that traditional and existing theories have not been able to predict the development of  unexpected changes in the region. This paper is an attempt to explain the matter through new methodological approach built on chaos and quantum theories.
If you are among those students of politics and international relations who are fed-up ‎‎‎with enormous numbers of theories, methods and paradigms in these fields, try to ‎‎‎understand this last one exposed in the present short essay. It may help you to view ‎‎and discuss political phenomenon in a different new way. Of course, the novelty of ‎‎this approach may make its comprehension a little bit difficult. Therefore, I don’t ‎‎guarantee that you will swiftly grasp the subject and make a research case of it. It is ‎‎suggested that the interested reader go through the whole text and references with ‎‎attention and repeat the process if necessary.  

Paradigm Shifts in Politics
When we speak of “paradigm” we cannot skip over the name of Thomas Kuhn[2] who has made several important claims and contributions concerning the progress of knowledge.[3] The followings are the most notable that are relevant to our study in this paper:
First: Science undergoes periodic "paradigm shifts" instead of progressing in a linear and continuous way. Second: these paradigm shifts open up new approaches to understanding that scientists would never have considered valid before. And third: scientists can never divorce their subjective perspective from their work; thus, our comprehension of science can never rely on full "objectivity" - we must account for subjective perspectives as well.[4]
Traditionally, we understand political phenomena and international relations in terms of positivist approaches based upon Newtonian worldview, which is mechanistic and reflecting “systemic determinism” governed by eternal universal laws.[5] This is how we used to explain for instance the concept of “Balance of Power” and a host of other theories during the cold war. The post cold war period, and most particularly the unpredictability of the September 11 events, proved the methodological insufficiency and inadequacy of this approach.
In recent years many authors have questioned the wisdom of continuing to rely on the Newtonian philosophy to deal with the emerging problems in world affairs and domestic issues which no longer respond to the conventional epistemological and ontological views of the past. Reliance on mere cause and effect, two dimensional “space and time,” political determinism, structure, interaction, order, sovereignty and the like are not responsive to our present methodological requisites. [6]
Many attempts have been made to remedy this paucity in political inquiries and a number of post-positivist approaches have been devised to fill this gap.[7] From ontological perspective, we find those departing from objective  (mechanistic) to subjective (interpretive) approaches; and from epistemological point of view, we depart from mere description and explanation to “understanding” of the political phenomenon in its entirety. Thus, emerged what we now refer to as post-modern approaches that include hermeneutics, language and discourse analyses as well as all other methods relating to post-behavior and post-structural concepts.[8]
Despite all these endeavors, we still feel in an epistemic vacuum and are not sure about the explanatory and predictive capacity of our methods and approaches. This is what we refer to as uncertainty in politics that gravely impede our inquiries. Let’s see whether quantum theory has anything to offer to remedy this malaise.

Quantum Theory and Uncertainty in Politics
The unpredictability[9] nature of politics has made it fit to marry with quantum theory which by definition stands upon this characteristic. In recent years, “chaos and quantum theories” have attracted academics and scholars as alternative research methodology across a wide range of social science discipline including politics and international relations.
Most of us are real bothered with the idea of uncertainty and unpredictability in politics and are not satisfied with expert explanations about events and situations that have led to certain drastic changes in domestic and international realms. This has guided some thinkers who worry about the future to embrace the concept of “quantum theory.” By the same token, “Uncertainty Principle” is one of the most renowned concepts in the field of quantum theory formulated by Heisenberg.[10] The idea is that when we observe a phenomenon, our mere act of observation affects the condition of the observed “thing.” This idea somehow matches the postmodern theory of politics. The underlying common factors to this concept is what "Post-Modernism" proposes; that is, the conviction that all "truths" are subjective and relative and that there are no objective facts.
In this view, “there are no immutable natural laws to be discovered. Everything that seems lawful is at best probabilistic, and perhaps fundamentally random.” In other words, anything that seems to be immutable is merely a consequence of “the limited time horizon of humans and therefore, nothing can be predicted with certainty about the events that may happen in the future.‎‎ If we accept this argument and expand it to the field of social science and politics, we will eventually feel much easier in our attempts to make faulty predictions. 
While the concept of quantum theory goes back to early 20th century[11], its entry and application in social sciences and especially in politics is relatively new. Many modern political scientists   have claimed that they had thought of or used the concept one way or another in the course of their teaching or research.[12] However, not until some years ago, with the publication of an innovative book: Quantum Politics: Applying Quantum Theory to Political Phenomenon edited by Professor Theodore L. Becker, the subject became widely exposed to academic debates.[13]
According to Becker, “quantum physics provides the means for replacing 18th century political and economic philosophies with a new paradigm more consistent with our current understanding of physical reality.”  A number of political scientists have contributed to the elucidation of this subject. The main pivotal argument here is “that a Newtonian world view dominant in the past, can no longer explain political phenomena.” 
Newtonian theory is more attuned to classical and liberal democratic thinking and thereby to indirect, representative democracy. Quantum theory, on the other hand, is linked with participatory democratic thoughts, that is to say “a more direct and purer form of democracy.”[14]  The classical Newtonian worldview, is rationalistic, mechanistic and predictive laying on the cause-and-effect, and assuming  an objective real world which can be objectively observed and measured by a trained, neutral observer. Whereas, “quantum politics is based on the unpredictable, contradictory nature of human beings.” [15]
Most social and behavioral science theories developed since Newton say that these assumptions are not the basis for understanding actual human behavior. Darwin and Freud, to name two intellectual giants of the 19th Century, have quite different paradigms which suggest how marginal indeed rationality, predictability, and objectivity are in human decision making. But in the early 20th Century, quantum physics seemed to go even farther.

Quantum Politics and Post-Modernism
In our ordinary reasoning and academic arguments we usually assume that men are rational and act accordingly to increase their gains and lower their losses in their interactions. Furthermore, it is assumed that in a democratic society, law and politics incorporated in a legal system and the relevant political institutions are product of collective wisdom that encourages good behavior of citizens and government responsiveness and accountability. However, this view is challenged by critics even in most democracies.  This also relates to assumptions underlying modern political systems, people’s voting behavior, freedom of expression and other kinds of liberties associated with citizen fundamental rights in society.
A critical introduction to the debate concerning the conceptual foundations of quantum mechanics and the problems it has posed for physicists and philosophers from Einstein to the present is reflected in a book by Christopher Norris: Quantum Theory and the Flight from Realism.[16]  According to Norris “Quantum theory has been a major influence on postmodernism, and presents significant challenges for realists.”[17] Clarifying these debates for the non-specialist, Norris examines the premises of orthodox quantum theory and its impact on various philosophical developments. “He subjects a wide range of opponents and supporters of realism to a high and equal level of scrutiny. Combining rigor and intellectual generosity, he draws out the merits and weaknesses from opposing arguments.”[18]
On the one side of quantum world view, there are some scientists who suggest “there is no real world, or at least no one real world;”[19] meaning that there may be many and perhaps an infinite worlds. In this contention, even if an objective real world exists, one cannot say anything with certainty about it at the micro level. Since, any attempt to observe or explain and quantify the observed world will disturb its condition. This is one important element of uncertainty about human observation of the universe because he is a part of it and not an independent observer.
Political scientist, Harold Lasswell,[20] who has studied almost everything new in political science before and after the Second World War, has also dealt with “the idea of policy sciences which is very compatible with a quantum perspective.” Pioneer positivist, Auguste Comte, who must be viewed as the father of the entire social physics perspective, also contributed to the explanation of the Positive philosophy and introduced the important relationship between theory, practice and human understanding of the world.  Comte’s emphasis on quantitative mathematical basis for decision-making remains with us even today. It is a foundation of the modern notion of positivism, modern quantitative statistical analysis, and business decision-making.[21]
The point here is that when politicians claim something as fact or truth, they are hiding some aspects of their actions or decision from the public. Since, there cannot be a concrete truth in the corner that one might put hand on it. But, in politics, you are permitted to build your own truth and sell it to the public either by convincing argument or through concealment. Therefore, it is safe to suggest that in politics  pretending to hold the truth,  is surely a sign of weakness,  rather than an admission of the existence of human fallibility and the lack of certainties in life.
Human fallibility is a fact of life and since politicians are human they too make mistakes like others. But the important question is to admit the fact and embrace the idea of uncertainty in politics and adopt the idea of Quantum Politics. There is no reason to get excited when we disagree with each other. The solution is to discuss the ideas we disagree upon and be prepared to admit when we're wrong.  This means that we must move away from the old dichotomy 'we're right and you're wrong' attitudes “towards the kind of Open Society, discussed by Karl Popper[22]. We don't have to stick to the old models anymore.

Quantum Politics and Chaos Theory
Students of international relations are more or less familiar with the notion of “anarchy,” which somehow represents the condition of “chaos” in a social or political environment. This in fact describes the dynamic nature of international system, composed of more than 200 independent nation-states that are sole arbiter of their decisions and actions. Anarchy is the condition of the “state of nature” or rule of jungle in which naked power and instinct for survival  are determinant factors. This means that chaos and anarchy are inseparable part of the global system.
I have called that condition the “critical order” in my last book: The End of Politics and the last Myth.[23] This represents the threshold of a fragile order in a system that can break down with the slightest unrestrained stimulus and cause the instability of the whole system in a chain reaction. We may explain this in term of the famous “Butterfly Effect”[24] in chaos theory.
From an academic point of view, chaos theory is a field of study in applied mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including physics, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions; an effect which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. [25] Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for chaotic systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.
This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable. This behavior is known as “deterministic chaos,” or simply chaos. Since the International System can be considered a nonlinear dynamic system, it is reasonable to take this theory into account for the study of the global order. [26]
The impact of Chaos theory on social science and politics relates to such concepts as class, race, gender, and ethnicity in society. This goes beyond existing paradigm, epistemology as well as the prevailing structural models and the underlying assumptions. Some scholars believe that chaos theory provide “a means of escaping structuralism's two signal flaws: it is inherently dynamic and time-sensitive and it permits a definition of social structural entities in such a way that if real, living, unique human beings vanished then the structures of society would also vanish.”[27]

Chaos Theory and the “Butterfly Effect”
One of the most interesting dimensions of chaos theory that can be applied in politics and international relations is the famous “butterfly effect.” The butterfly effect “is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory; namely, a small change at one place in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere.”[28]
In simple term, the concept refers to the idea that “a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in a certain location.”[29] The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events. This impact is like “domino effect”[30] in a series of events that successively create similar change in the subsystems of a large global system. Recent crises in North Africa and the Middle East could be cited as vivid example of this kind.[31]
Chaos theory can also provide an analytic paradigm which might allow us to see how providing a set of democratic laws to a totalitarian culture does not necessarily transform it into a democratic society. This explains the reverse effect of chaos in a resistant system non-sensitive to its environment, which usually represents closed as opposed to open societies.
We may apply the chaos theory to human behavior as well. The findings of a research confirm the universality of chaotic behavior within human interactions.[32] These findings “challenge some of the underlying assumptions on which work motivation theories are based, and suggest that chaos theory may offer useful and relevant information on how this process is managed within organizations.”[33]
The study further suggests that:  systems with chaotic dynamics share certain important features that can be categorized as follows:
  •  They show “aperiodicity,” meaning that they happen at irregular intervals. In other words,  they are systems whose dynamics or state of motion  never pass twice through the same path;
  •  The dynamic behavior of the system stays within a finite range of values, after which it is self-contained;
  • The dynamic is deterministic, that is, it is regulated by rules; and finally,
  •  The system shows sensitive dependence on initial conditions. In other words, a tiny difference at starting points, will give rise to very different evolutions of the system.[34]
As stated above, this last aspect is also known as the “butterfly effect” which deals with the notion of proportionality or lack of it at the initial stage and the final outcome. In other words, sometimes a small and almost imperceptible disruption in the initial condition of sub-systems is capable of generating significant changes in the behavior of a larger system.[35]
The concept of the butterfly effect is frequently referred to in popular culture in terms of the novelty of a minor change in circumstances causing a large change in the outcome.   What the butterfly effect seems to posit, is that the prediction of the behavior of any large system, (such as the global system) is virtually impossible unless one could account for all tiny factors, which might have a minute effect on all the sub-system. Thus large systems like international order remain impossible to predict because there are too many unknown factors and variables that concurrently occur in a dynamic (non-linear) fashion impossible to take into account. [36]
Conclusion
Political events and crises remain unpredictable and difficult to forestall. Conventional positivist and mechanistic approaches based upon Newtonian worldview which reflects “systemic determinism” governed by eternal universal laws, are no longer responsive to our inquiries.  Interpretive approaches in the post-modern period too, while confirm uncertainty in human behavior  and collective state conduct, lack sufficient clarity for prescriptive actions and predictions.
Events that escalated into a full-blown revolution in Tunisia and proliferated to Egypt and other states, was merely due to a “butterfly effect” that got momentum after an unemployed graduate Tunisian citizen  sets himself ablaze. Similar incidents often happen elsewhere without being exposed to public attention. But, this has instigated a tornado that pierced its course through North Africa and the Middle East with amazing impacts. The phenomenon surprised everybody, from experts to politicians and average people.
Characteristics of non-linear and spiral-exponential equations in situations with numerous variables in political sphere and international relations lead us to go beyond traditional methods influenced by post-Newtonian world view for satisfying explanations. Quantum theory might shed some light on the dynamic behavior of systems which make them difficult to predict. Quantum politics and chaos theory can better describe the fragile condition of authoritarian political institutions, governments and states’ interactions. The notion of butterfly effect tells us that a minor change in a dynamic system can cause a large change in the outcome. However, depending on the unpredictable circumstances, the same stimulus may produce no result, by the same token change the course or attenuate the force of a crisis.  Thus we cannot generalize the rule with certainty in other similar situations.
Potentially chaotic but deterministic systems in international relations, whose future behavior is not fully determined by their initial conditions, have a tendency to perform in random fashion. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable. These are called “deterministic chaos.” If we consider International System as   a nonlinear dynamic system, then we can reasonably argue that the global order is ruled by chaos theory.
As stated above, the impact of chaos theory relates to all aspects of politics and international relations in the global context. This makes the underlying assumptions of existing paradigm, epistemology, as well as the prevailing structural models outmoded. Whether we can build a convenient methodological tool on the basis of this new worldview depends on our effort to fully grasp and apply the post-Newtonian perspective in our academic inquiries. /



[1] Ali Asghar Kazemi is Former Dean and currently Professor of Law and International Relations at the ‎‎Faculty of Law and Political Science - Post-Graduate Program, IAU, Science and Research Branch. ‎‎Tehran- Iran. Dr. Kazemi is a graduate of the French Naval Academy and The United States Naval Post-Graduate School, Monterrey Calif. He holds PhD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Medford, Mass. USA.

This paper is a follow-up of a previous essay by the author on “Dynamic versus Static Political Inquiry” ‎‎which was written last January 2011. It is suggested that the two papers be read together for better ‎‎understanding the subject. See: Academia www.academia1.blogspot.com  
[2] Thomas Samuel Kuhn; July 18, 1922 – June 17, ‎‎1996 was an American physicist who wrote extensively on the history of science and developed several important notions in the sociology and philosophy of science.

[3] See e.g.: Kuhn, T.S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962.  Kuhn's work has been extensively used in social science; for instance, in the post-positivist/positivist debate within International Relations.

[4]  The Structure of Scientific Revolutions was originally printed as an article in the International Encyclopedia of Unified Science, published by the logical positivists of the Vienna Circle. In this book, Kuhn argued that science does not progress via a linear accumulation of new knowledge, but undergoes periodic revolutions, also called "paradigm shifts" (although he did not coin the phrase), in which the nature of scientific inquiry within a particular field is abruptly transformed. Taken from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

 [5]  Cf. Dimitrios E. Akrivoulis , The ‘Quantum Politics’ Metaphor in International Relations: Towards a Hermeneutics of Political Metaphoricity Paper presented at the 57th Political Studies Association Annual Conference University of Bath, UK, 11-13 April 2007

[6] Cf. Ibid. See also Walker, R.B.J. (1991) “State Sovereignty and the Articulation of Political Space/Time”, Millennium, Vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 445-461. See also e.g.: DeTombe, Dorien J. & C. van Dijkum  (Editors) Analyzing Complex Societal Problems: a methodological approach, Munich; Mering; Hampp, 1996 .

[7] See e.g. my paper: Ali Asghar Kazemi, “Dynamic versus Static Political Inquiry” in The  Middle East Academic Forum. www.aakazemi.blogspot.com January 2011.
 
[8] Many contemporary philosophers and scholars have contributed to this development among whom the names of  Heidegger, Sartre, Merleau-Ponty, Bachelard, Foucault and  Riceour are most cited in academic milieu.

[9]  Unpredictability may be based on incomplete data or on non-linear feedback loops which is the case of chaos theory. "A process that is unpredictable is undetermined in terms of time and other variables that determine the state of a process. Cited in: DeTombe, Dorien J. & C. van Dijkum ,Analyzing Complex Societal Problems: a methodological approach, 1996.
[10] The  Heisenberg uncertainty principle, a quantum physics concept which is commonly (yet inaccurately) used to refer to the fact that in the Copenhagen Interpretation model of quantum mechanical behavior, observers affect what they are observing, by the mere act of observing it alone (this is actually the observer effect, and is commonly confused with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle).  In quantum mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states by precise inequalities that certain pairs of physical properties, such as position and momentum, cannot be simultaneously known to arbitrarily high precision. That is, the more precisely one property is measured, the less precisely the other can be measured. See : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heisenbug#Heisenbug  See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle

[11] Quantum theory evolved as a new branch of theoretical physics during the first few decades of the 20th century in an endeavor to understand the fundamental properties of matter. It began with the study of the interactions of matter and radiation. In contrast to Einstein's Relativity, which is about the largest things in the universe, quantum theory deals with the tiniest things we know, the particles that atoms are made of, which we call "subatomic" particles. In contrast to Relativity, quantum theory was not the work of one individual, but the collaborative effort of some of the most brilliant physicists of the 20th century, among them Niels Bohr, Erwin Schrödinger, Wolfgang Pauli, and Max Born. Two names clearly stand out: Max Planck (1858-1947) and Werner Heisenberg (1901-1976). Planck is recognized as the originator of the quantum theory, while Heisenberg formulated one of the most eminent laws of quantum theory, the Uncertainty Principle, which is occasionally also referred to as the principle of indeterminacy.See Wikipedia under the subject of “Quantum Theory.”

[12] I used the concept in my early manuscript in the last chapter of a book on Method and Insight in Politics in late 1980’s when I was dealing with new emerging methods and approach in political science. See Ali Asghar Kazemi, Method and Insight in Politics, (A Philosophical, Scientific and Methodological Approach), Tehran: Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS), 1995. Chapter 11, p. 282.( In Persian)

[13] One reviewer of the book has described it in the following manner:”I am confident that this volume will mark a turning point in political theory, political design, and eventually political practice. It definitely should be on the assigned reading list of every student of politics, and every political activist. I don't expect many current politicians to read it, although they certain should, but I do expect it to be a kind of Bible for future political generations.” Reviewed by Jim Dator

[14]   Theodore L. Becker, ed. Applying Quantum Theory to Political Phenomenon   New York; Westport, Connecticut; London: Praeger, 1991. 232 pages, plus 16 page preface
 
[15] The standard explanation of what takes place at the quantum level is known as the Copenhagen Interpretation. This is because much of the pioneering work was carried out by the Danish physicist  Niels Bohr, who worked in Copenhagen. Quantum theory attempts to describe the behavior of very small objects, generally speaking the size of atoms or smaller, in much the same way as relativity describes the laws of larger everyday objects. We find it necessary to have two sets of rules because particles do not behave in the same way as larger everyday objects, such as billiard balls. We can, for example, say precisely where a billiard ball is, what it is doing, and what it is about to do. The same cannot be said for particles. They are, quite literally, a law unto themselves, and why this should be so is a source of much debate.
[16]  Christopher Norris, Quantum Theory and the Flight from Realism: Philosophical Responses to Quantum Mechanics (Critical Realism) (London: Routledge, 2000) [Paperback]. Prof. Norris is Distinguished Research Professor in Philosophy at Cardiff University. He is one of the world's leading scholars on deconstruction, and the work of Jacques Derrida. This book is a valuable source for those who are interested in the debate concerning the conceptual foundations of quantum mechanics and clarifies the problems it has raised for physicists and philosophers. In a sequence of closely argued chapters, Norris examines the premises of orthodox quantum theory, as developed most influentially by Bohr and Heisenberg, and its impact on various philosophical developments.
[17] Ibid
[18] Norris, Ibid.
[19] To them, there may be many worlds or may be infinite worlds. Becker, ibid.

[20] Harold Dwight Lasswell (February 13, 1902 — December 18, 1978) was a leading American political scientist and communications theorist. He was a member of the Chicago school of sociology and was a professor at Yale University in law. He was a President of the American Political Science Association (APSA) and World Academy of Art and Science (WAAS).See:   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Lasswell

[21] Isidore Auguste Marie François Xavier Comte (19 January 1798 – 5 September 1857), better known as Auguste Comte. He was a French philosopher, a founder of the discipline of sociology and of the doctrine of positivism. He may be regarded as the first philosopher of science in the modern sense of the term. Strongly influenced by the Utopian socialist Henri de Saint-Simon, Comte developed the positive philosophy in an attempt to remedy the social malaise of the French revolution, calling for a new social paradigm based on the sciences. See : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Comte 

[22] Sir Karl Raimund Popper,  (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austro-British philosopher and a professor at the London School of Economics. He is regarded as one of the greatest philosophers of science of the 20th century; he also wrote extensively on social and political philosophy. Popper is known for his attempt to repudiate the classical observationalist / inductivist account of scientific method by advancing empirical falsification instead; for his opposition to the classical justificationist account of knowledge which he replaced with critical rationalism, "the first non justificational philosophy of criticism in the history of philosophy";  and for his vigorous defense of liberal democracy and the principles of social criticism that he came to believe made a flourishing "open society" possible.
[23] See: Ali Asghar Kazemi, The End of Politics and the Last Myth: Critical Order in the Post-Political 21st Century. Tehran: Ghoomes Publishing Co. 2001. ( In Persian)
[24]  See below for an explanation of the Butterfly Effect.
[25] See Wikipedia, also see: Smith, R. D. (1998) “Social Structures and Chaos Theory” inSociological Research Online, vol. 3, no. 1, ‎‎
[26] Mostly from Wikipedia under the title of “Chaos Theory.”
[27] Smith, Op.cit.
[29] Ibid
[30] Comparing this effect to the domino effect is slightly misleading. There is dependence on the initial sensitivity, but whereas a simple linear row of dominoes would cause one event to initiate another similar one, the butterfly effect amplifies the condition upon each interaction.

[31] This is for example like the crisis that happened in Tunisia at the beginning of the year 2011 and very quickly proliferated in Egypt and other countries of the Middle East and North Africa. See my trilogy articles on the subject in The Middle Eat Academic Forum
1.     “Crisis Proliferation in the Middle East”
2.     “Tunisia Crisis Turned into a Revolution”
3.     “Tunisia Crisis: A Call for Change in the Middle East”
[32]  See e.g. : José Navarro, and Carlos Arrieta, “Chaos in Human Behavior: The Case of Work Motivation. The Spanish Journal of Psychology, Vol. 13 No. 1

[33] Ibid
[34] Cf.  Ibid
[35]  Cf. idem
[36]  In human behavior, one can certainly see how small changes could render behavior, or another complex system, extremely unpredictable. Small actions or experiences stored in the unconscious mind, could certainly affect a person’s behavior in unexpected ways.